Arms Control Wonk: Leading Voices on Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation

A Firstful of Interceptors: ABM Performance During True Promise II

Introduction This is the second in a series of blog posts I’m writing on True Promise II, the October 2024 Iranian missile attack against Israel. This post focuses on the U.S. and Israeli missile defense efforts, building on my previous post on TP II as well as the work and methodology outlined by Steve Fetter …

Pentagon Blocks Ukraine Strikes

Alex Ward and others at the Wall Street Journal reported on the details of a Pentagon review process that has halted Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range strikes into Russia with ATACMs, Storm Shadow and other systems that need US targeting data. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what we already knew, what we didn’t, and what …

Ninety Percent Of The Time, The Missile Works Every Time: Iranian Missile Failure Rates During True Promise II

This is the first in a series of posts I am writing on True Promise II to complement the piece I did on ABM expenditures during the 12 Day War. I hope it will also serve as a corrective to some poor quality information that has been circulating since the start of the missile exchanges …

Fly Burevestnik Fly!

The Slack channel noticed that Russia was gearing up to test the SSC-X-9 Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile (aka Burevestnik), which Jeffrey and co. confirmed with satellite images. Reuters picked it up, noting how awkward all this was coming, as it did, just as Putin flew to Alaska to meet with Donald Trump. Aaron and Jeffrey …